Article 3: Will Georgia Go Blue?
media mentionBy Eric Bates | March 6, 2014
If you had told me last year that a red state in the Deep South could possibly turn blue within two or three election cycles, I probably would’ve laughed at you and then dismissed everything you had to say about politics ever again. But to my surprise (and the dismay of conservatives), the possibility of Georgia shifting from a historically red state to a newly minted blue one is very real.
This phenomenon boils down to essentially one key demographic trend – more black people. Okay, I grossly oversimplified that, but Georgia does have one of the fastest growing minority populations in the country and is showing no sign of slowing down.
In 2000, Georgia’s population was 63 percent white, but the 2010 state census shows that the percentage decreased seven points to 56. Meanwhile, in the past decade, the black population experienced a 26 percent growth rate; of the state’s 1.5 million new residents in those 10 years, more than 80 percent were non-white.
The Latino population in Georgia saw an even bigger explosion, rising from 100,000 to 800,000 to total 9 percent of the state’s population.
The state is also rapidly becoming less rural and more city-centered. The mecca of this minority demographic boom is the Atlanta metro area, whose new minority residency totaled more than 1 million people. I think this is happening because rappers keep saying it’s the place to be, but I could be wrong.
Taking such major sociological shifts into consideration, I believe that Georgia’s blue transformation is not a matter of if, but when.
Minority voters are extremely pro-Democratic and Georgia’s 16 electoral votes are on track to go blue relatively soon. Democrats already had big wins in the majority of the 2012 swing states. In 2000, whites made up 75 percent of voters in the presidential race. In the 2012 race, they fell 14 points to 61 percent. This population trend is only going to help the Democrats’ chances of securing spots in Congress and the presidency while inflicting significant damage to Republican designs on reclaiming the White House.
But that isn’t the only demographic omen plaguing conservatives. Young people and white women are seemingly rejecting conservative stances on women’s reproductive rights, LGBT rights, and income equality.
Alarmed by national and state minority voter turnouts, and in a transparent effort to make it harder for minorities to vote, Georgia Republicans pushed through their state legislature what was one of the first in a national series of strict voter ID laws in 2006. That could have limited poor minorities from voting, although the black voter turnout rate exceeded the white rate in the 2010 midterm elections.
Dylan Glenn, former special assistant to George W. Bush, stated, “I think Georgia will remain a Republican state,” because the message of low taxes will appeal to minority voters.
Okay, hold on here: I’m about to go all ‘MSNBC Fact Check’ on this one. According to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, Georgia’s tax system is regressive, which means that low income families pay a greater percentage of their income in state and local taxes than higher income families. Not only that, but 1 in 5 Georgians are living below the poverty line. It’s no secret that the black median household income is significantly lower than the rest of the more privileged population’s, so it’s a gross misconception that minorities have enjoyed the awesome boons of southern tax rates.
Georgia also has one of the strictest abortion laws: 94 percent of its counties have no abortion provider, and young women’s access to abortion services is restricted by mandatory parental notice.
The only thing that may inhibit Georgia from turning blue is that it is, and always has been, fundamentally culturally conservative. That being said, there is still a clear path to a Democratic takeover of this red state. Keep in mind: Democrats have proven that they can convert historically red states such as North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia. Georgia might very well be the next one.