Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy

Carl Davis

Research Director

Carl Davis
Areas of Expertise
tax modeling state taxes federal taxes cannabis taxes school voucher credits gas taxes dynamic scoring

Carl is the research director at ITEP, where he has worked since 2008. Carl works on a wide range of issues related to state, local, and federal tax policy. He has advised policymakers, researchers, and advocates on tax policy issues in nearly every state. Much of his work pertains to tax incidence analysis, which illuminates how tax policies vary in impact across income level and race. He has contributed to five editions of ITEP’s flagship Who Pays? report, which measures effective tax rates by income level in every state, and was the project lead on the most recent edition of the study.

Carl has been deeply involved in building out ITEP’s growing portfolio of work at the intersection of taxes and race. This included advising the organization’s economists and analysts in their successful effort to attach racial identifiers to ITEP’s tax microdata, as well as authoring reports demonstrating the positive, and negative, effects that tax policy has on racial disparities.

As research director, Carl is responsible for steering ITEP’s work to new or underexplored areas and has written about proposals to legalize and tax cannabis sales, to implement vehicle-miles-traveled taxes, and to update the tax treatment of the “gig economy.” He has also investigated the connection between state taxes and economic growth, options for improving transportation funding through gas tax reform, the pitfalls of expansive tax subsidies for seniors, and promoting housing affordability with property tax circuit breakers.

Carl has conducted extensive research into tax credits for people who contribute to organizations that give out vouchers for free or reduced tuition at private K-12 schools. That research helped reveal the profitable tax shelters that these credits create for some upper-income people and was heavily cited in the run-up to an IRS regulation that curtailed use of those shelters.

Prior to assuming the role of research director, Carl worked as an analyst for ITEP and used its proprietary microsimulation tax model to perform tax incidence and revenue analyses for lawmakers and advocates across the country. Carl also previously worked as part of the State Economic Issues team at AARP. He holds bachelor’s degrees in both economics and political science from Virginia Tech and a Master’s in Public Policy from George Washington University.

 carl at itep.org

Recent Publications

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Top 1% to Receive $1 Trillion Tax Cut from Trump Megabill Over the Next Decade

July 3, 2025 • By Carl Davis

The Trump megabill will give the top 1 percent tax cuts totaling $1.02 trillion over the next decade. For comparison, the bill’s cuts to the Medicaid health care program will total $930 billion over the same period.

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Senate Megabill Takes Cap Off Unprecedented Private School Voucher Tax Credit, Potentially Raising Cost by Tens of Billions Relative to House Version

July 2, 2025 • By Carl Davis

The tax and spending legislation approved by the U.S. Senate would create an unprecedented, dollar-for-dollar federal tax credit designed to support private school vouchers. This tax credit has the potential to come with an enormous cost if private school groups are successful in convincing their supporters to participate.

More Publications by Carl Davis

Recent Media Mentions

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CNBC: Why Trump Tax Deductions – For Tips, Car Loans and More – May Not Carry Large Benefits for Low Earners

July 3, 2025 • By Carl Davis

How much money you save with tax deductions, which reduce your taxable income, depends on your bracket. Deductions are more valuable to higher-income households and less beneficial for lower earners, experts said.

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CNBC: How the Republican Megabill Targets Immigrant Finances

June 26, 2025 • By Carl Davis, Sarah Austin

“If a U.S. citizen is married to an undocumented immigrant, or if a citizen child has an undocumented parent, then the House bill considers the citizen to have forfeited their right to a range of tax breaks,” ITEP researchers Carl Davis and Sarah Austin wrote in an analysis in May. Read more. 

More Media Mentions of Carl Davis