“Basically any tax cut done at the state level has doubled in cost,” said Carl Davis, research director at the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. For example, if a state enacts a $50 million tax cut, it will lose $50 million in the revenue it won’t collect and another $50 million in federal aid.
Under the ARP, these tax cuts will either have to wait until 2024 or be offset by other revenue-raising measures, or they will cost the state double what they would have originally cost.