Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP)

September 30, 2026

New Estimates of the Total Number of People and Children in Immigrant Families who Could Lose Eligibility for the Refundable Portions of the Earned Income Tax Credit and Child Tax Credit

Brief • Emma Sifre

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This brief was co-authored with the Institute for Equity in Child Opportunity & Healthy Development (IECOHD) at Boston University and the Center on Poverty and Social Policy (CPSP) at Columbia University.

Read the full brief here.


The United States (U.S.) Department of the Treasury and the Internal Revenue Service proposed a new rule that would further restrict eligibility for the refundable portions of four tax credits, including the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and Child Tax Credit (CTC), based on citizenship and immigration status. The rule would affect primarily lawfully present immigrants authorized to work in the United States and their family members, including their children, the vast majority of whom are U.S. citizens.

We estimate:

  • Approximately 602,000 people, including 279,000 children, live in families that could lose eligibility for the EITC.
  • Approximately 1,033,000 people, including 523,000 children, live in families that could lose eligibility for the Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC), the refundable portion of the federal CTC.
  • Approximately 515,000 people, including 258,000 children, live in families that could lose eligibility for both the EITC and the ACTC.
  • The vast majority of children who would lose eligibility are U.S. citizens: Nearly 9 in 10 children losing eligibility for either or both credits are U.S. citizens.


The Institute for Equity in Child Opportunity & Healthy Development (IECOHD) at Boston University, Center on Poverty and Social Policy (CPSP) at Columbia University, and Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) have come together to form the Research to Action Hub for Children in Immigrant Families, a one-stop, trusted source of data and analysis on children in immigrant families. The Hub produces rigorous and reliable indicators and analysis of the socioeconomic wellbeing of children in immigrant families, as well as estimates of how actual and proposed policy changes affect them.


Author

Emma Sifre
Emma Sifre

Senior Data Analyst