It follows that low- and middle-income Ohioans pay a higher share than the national average, and wealthy Ohioans pay a lower share.
To a degree, that is expected in view of the vastly larger incomes of wealthy Ohioans. At the same time, the state would be well served by altering the shares to make the state and local system more fair, to reflect how new income in recent years, even decades, has flowed largely to households at the highest income rungs.
The House passed its “Tax Cuts and Jobs Act” November 16th and the Senate passed its version December 2nd. Both bills would raise taxes on many low- and middle-income families in every state and provide the wealthiest Americans and foreign investors substantial tax cuts, while adding more than $1.4 trillion to the deficit over ten years. The graph below shows that both bills are skewed to the richest 1 percent of Ohio residents.
The Senate tax bill released last week would raise taxes on some families while bestowing immense benefits on wealthy Americans and foreign investors. In Ohio, 45 percent of the federal tax cuts would go to the richest 5 percent of residents, and 11 percent of households would face a tax increase, once the bill is fully implemented.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which was introduced on November 2 in the House of Representatives, includes some provisions that raise taxes and some that cut taxes, so the net effect for any particular family’s federal tax bill depends on their situation. Some of the provisions that benefit the middle class — like lower tax rates, an increased standard deduction, and a $300 tax credit for each adult in a household — are designed to expire or become less generous over time. Some of the provisions that benefit the wealthy, such as the reduction and eventual repeal of the estate tax, become more generous over time. The result is that by 2027, the benefits of the House bill become increasingly generous for the richest one percent compared to other income groups.
The “tax reform framework” released by the Trump administration and congressional Republican leaders on September 27 would not benefit everyone in Ohio equally. The richest one percent of Ohio residents would receive 57.5 percent of the tax cuts within the state under the framework in 2018. These households are projected to have an income of at least $483,100 next year. The framework would provide them an average tax cut of $56,280 in 2018, which would increase their income by an average of 3.7 percent.
A tiny fraction of the Ohio population (0.5 percent) earns more than $1 million annually. But this elite group would receive 39.1 percent of the tax cuts that go to Ohio residents under the tax proposals from the Trump administration. A much larger group, 47.6 percent of the state, earns less than $45,000, but would receive just 6.3 percent of the tax cuts.
Earlier this year, the Trump administration released some broadly outlined proposals to overhaul the federal tax code. Households in Ohio would not benefit equally from these proposals. The richest one percent of the state’s taxpayers are projected to make an average income of $1,485,800 in 2018.
Illinois and New Jersey made national news earlier this month after resolving their contentious budget stalemates. But they weren’t the only states working through (and in some cases after) the holiday weekend to resolve budget issues.
This week, we celebrate a victory in Kansas where lawmakers rolled back Brownback’s tax cuts for the richest taxpayers. Governors in West Virginia and Alaska promote compromise tax plans. Texas heads into special session and Vermont faces another budget veto, while Louisiana and New Mexico are on the verge of wrapping up. Voters in Massachusetts may soon be able to weigh in on a millionaire’s tax, the California Senate passed single-payer health care, and more!
Governor Kasich’s tax proposal would further reinforce the shift in Ohio’s state and local tax system in favor of affluent residents and against those with lower or middle incomes. Under the plan, Ohioans who made under $56,000 last year – those in the bottom three-fifths of the income spectrum – on average would pay more tax than they do now.
New analysis for Policy Matters Ohio by the Institute on Taxation & Economic Policy, a national nonprofit research institute with a sophisticated model of the state and local tax system, shows the governor’s tax plan raises taxes for many Ohioans. It reduces state income tax rates and cuts the number of brackets from nine to five.