The House of Representatives unveiled a sprawling piece of tax legislation earlier this week that would extend temporary tax changes enacted in 2017 and layer various kinds of tax cuts and increases on top. The JCT analysis makes clear that the House tax plan would be regressive, meaning it would offer larger tax cuts as a share of income to high-income taxpayers than to either middle-class or working-class families. It also makes clear that most of the tax cuts would go to families with above-average incomes.
Carl Davis
Carl Davis is the research director at ITEP, where he has worked since 2008. Carl works on a wide range of issues related to both state and federal tax policy. He has advised policymakers, researchers, and advocates on tax policy issues in nearly every state. Much of his work relates to the link between taxes and economic growth, and the shortcomings of dynamic scoring and supply-side economic theories.
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blog May 16, 2025 The House Tax Plan, By the Numbers
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brief May 15, 2025 House Tax Bill Enlists the Wealthy to Spread Private School Vouchers
The House tax plan cuts charitable giving tax incentives for donors to most nonprofit groups while roughly tripling the incentive available to donors to groups that fund private K-12 school vouchers. The bill would also allow private school voucher donors to avoid capital gains tax on their gifts of corporate stock, creating a profitable tax shelter for wealthy people who agree to help funnel public funds into private schools. The bill would reduce federal tax revenue by $23.2 billion over the next 10 years as currently drafted, or by $67 billion over the next 10 years if it is extended beyond its four-year expiration date.
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blog May 10, 2025 Trump’s Proposed Higher Tax Rate on the Richest Taxpayers Would Affect Very Little of Their Income
President Donald Trump has proposed allowing the top rate to revert from 37 percent to 39.6 percent for taxable income greater than $5 million for married couples and $2.5 million for unmarried taxpayers. But many other special breaks in the tax code would ensure that most income of very well-off people would never be subject to Trump’s 39.6 percent tax rate.
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blog April 22, 2025 Missouri is Sleepwalking into a Half-Billion Dollar Tax Cut for the Rich
Missouri lawmakers are debating a tax cut that will mostly benefit the wealthiest in the state, while relying on an unrealistic estimate of what it will cost.
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map April 17, 2025 Taxes on Adult-Use Cannabis in Each State
Twenty-three states have legalized the sale of cannabis for general adult use, and sales are already underway in 21 of those states. Every state allowing legal sales applies an excise… -
brief April 9, 2025 Sharp Turn in Federal Policy Brings Significant Risks for State Tax Revenues
Summary The new presidential administration and Congress have indicated that they intend to bring about a dramatic federal retreat in funding for health care, food assistance, education, and other services… -
brief March 28, 2025 Advantaging Affluence: A Distributional Analysis of Missouri HB 798’s Uneven Tax Cuts for Wealth and Work
Missouri House Bill 798 would reduce personal and corporate income tax rates, fully eliminate taxes on capital gains income from sale of assets, and eliminates the state’s modest Earned Income Tax Credit that assists many working people in lower-paid jobs. HB 798 would radically transform Missouri’s income tax code into a system that privileges income from wealth over income from work, leaving many middle-income families to pay a higher income tax rate than wealthy people living off their investments.
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report March 18, 2025 Shelter Skelter: How the Educational Choice for Children Act Would Use Tax Avoidance to Fuel School Privatization
The Educational Choice for Children Act of 2025 would ostensibly provide a tax break on charitable donations to organizations that give out private K-12 school vouchers. Most of the so-called “contributions,” however, would be made by wealthy people solely for the tax savings, as those savings would typically be larger than their contributions.
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report March 18, 2025 A Revenue Impact Analysis of the Educational Choice for Children Act of 2025
The Educational Choice for Children Act of 2025 would provide donors to nonprofit groups that distribute private K-12 school vouchers with a dollar-for-dollar federal tax credit in exchange for their contributions. In total, the ECCA would reduce federal and state tax revenues by $10.6 billion in 2026 and by $136.3 billion over the next 10 years. Federal tax revenues would decline by $134 billion over 10 years while state revenues would decline by $2.3 billion.
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brief March 6, 2025 Proposed Missouri Tax Shelter Would Aid the Wealthy, Anti-Abortion Centers Alike
In Missouri, donations to anti-abortion pregnancy resource centers come with state tax credits valued at 70 cents on the dollar. One bill currently being debated in the state would increase that matching rate to 100 percent—that is a full, state-funded reimbursement of gifts to anti-abortion groups.
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report February 20, 2025 A Revenue Analysis of Worldwide Combined Reporting in the States
Universal adoption of mandatory worldwide combined reporting would boost state corporate income tax revenues by roughly 14 percent. Thirty-eight states and the District of Columbia would experience revenue increases totaling $19.1 billion.
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blog February 11, 2025 Turning IRS Agents to Deportation Will Reduce Public Revenues
The Trump Administration’s plan to turn IRS agents into deportation agents will result in lower tax collections in addition to the harm done to the families and communities directly affected by deportations.
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blog February 3, 2025 Policymakers Could Consider Using Tax and Transfer Policy to Reduce the Racial Retirement Wealth Gap
As we show in our recent study, this is, in part, due to longstanding discrimination shaping racial differences in economic wellbeing in the U.S. Moreover, aspects of federal and state tax policies have helped create the vast racial retirement wealth gap in place today. For this reason, we evaluate how tax and transfer policy reforms could help shrink racial retirement wealth inequality. To inform lawmakers as they approach the 2025 debates, below we offer several guiding principles.
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brief January 6, 2025 The Pitfalls of Flat Income Taxes
While most states have a graduated rate income tax, some state lawmakers have recently become enamored with the idea of moving toward flat rate taxes instead. What’s the difference? And… -
report October 7, 2024 A Distributional Analysis of Donald Trump’s Tax Plan
Former President Donald Trump has proposed a wide variety of tax policy changes. Taken together, these proposals would, on average, lead to a tax cut for the richest 5 percent of Americans and a tax increase for all other income groups.
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blog September 12, 2024 Voucher Boondoggle: House Advances Plan to Give the Wealthy $1.20 for Every $1 They Steer to Private K-12 Schools
The U.S. House Ways & Means Committee has advanced a new school voucher bill. H.R. 9462—the Educational Choice for Children Act of 2024—would create an unprecedented tax incentive designed to fund private, mostly religious, K-12 schools.
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blog September 9, 2024 The Quiet Effort to Make Single Parenthood More Expensive
After the dust settles on this year’s election, one of the most pressing issues confronting the next Congress and President will be how to deal with the expiration of the 2017 Trump tax cuts and, more specifically, who will pay for the cost of extending some or all of those cuts. Among the more widely accepted ideas circulating on the right is to raise income taxes on single parents, more than four in five of whom are women and a disproportionate share of whom are people of color.
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ITEP Work in Action August 26, 2024 ITEP’s Carl Davis: Pyramids, Cascades, and the Taxation of Business Inputs
ITEP Research Director Carl Davis gave this presentation to the New Mexico Revenue Stabilization and Tax Policy Committee on August 23, 2024. View the slides here. -
blog August 6, 2024 Minnesota Stands Out for Its Moderately Progressive Tax Code
Minnesota stands apart from the rest of the country with a moderately progressive tax system that asks slightly more of the rich than of low- and middle-income families. Recent reforms signed by Gov. Tim Walz have contributed to this reality.
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report July 30, 2024 Tax Payments by Undocumented Immigrants
Undocumented immigrants paid $96.7 billion in federal, state, and local taxes in 2022. Providing access to work authorization for undocumented immigrants would increase their tax contributions both because their wages would rise and because their rates of tax compliance would increase.
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report June 26, 2024 States Should Enact, Expand Mansion Taxes to Advance Fairness and Shared Prosperity
The report was produced in partnership with the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and co-authored by CBPP’s Deputy Director of State Policy Research Samantha Waxman.[1] Click here to use… -
brief April 16, 2024 Is California Really a High-Tax State?
Key Findings For families of modest means, California is not a high-tax state. California taxes are close to the national average for families in the bottom 80 percent of the… -
blog April 1, 2024 Five Things to Know About Tax Foundation’s Critique of Maryland’s Worldwide Combined Reporting Proposal
Maryland lawmakers are considering enacting worldwide combined reporting (WWCR), also known as complete reporting. This policy offers a more accurate, and less gameable, way to calculate the amount of profit… -
report February 6, 2024 Tax Policy to Reduce Racial Retirement Wealth Inequality
Historic and ongoing discrimination have created stark racial disparities in the US, and the racial retirement wealth gap is one such example.
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ITEP Work in Action February 5, 2024 Video: ITEP’s Carl Davis Discusses ‘Who Pays?’ at Rhode Island Revenue Roundtable
ITEP researcher Carl Davis joins the Economic Progress Institute (EPI) for Rhode Island’s Revenue Roundtable.