Tax Analyses
ITEP staff uses the ITEP Microsimulation model to produce quantitative analyses of current and proposed federal tax policies, creating distributional analyses (analyzing the effect on taxpayers according to their income group), producing revenue estimates (how much a tax policy would affect annual federal revenue collection), and even breaking down the impact of federal policies on each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia.
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blog September 11, 2018 Repealing the Federal Tax Law’s Cap on State and Local Tax (SALT) Deductions Is No Improvement
National and State-by-State Data Available for Download Nearly Two-Thirds of Benefits from Repealing the SALT Cap Would Go to the Richest 1 Percent Lawmakers who opposed the Tax Cuts and… -
blog August 9, 2018 Insult to Injury: Why Tax Cuts 2.0 Makes No Sense
In this illustrated breakdown of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and Tax Cuts 2.0, ITEP staff examine TCJA’s role in growing income inequality, broken promises from corporations pledging to invest tax savings into workers and wages, and the embarrassment of riches flowing to the wealthiest Americans as a result of these “middle-class tax cuts.”
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report April 13, 2018 10 Things You Should Know about the Nation’s Tax System
Everyone pays taxes, including those who earn the least. Our collective federal, state, and local tax system includes income taxes, payroll taxes (Social Security, Medicare), property taxes, sales and other excise taxes. The total share of taxes (federal, state, and local) that Americans across the economic spectrum will pay in 2018 is roughly equal to their total share of income.
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blog April 11, 2018 A Paul Ryan Retrospective: A Decade of Regressive Budget and Tax Plans
As Speaker of the House, Rep. Paul Ryan pushed through the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that will cost at least $1.5 trillion and provide around half of its benefits to the richest five percent of households. He then announced that Congress needs to cut entitlements to get the budget deficit under control. Before becoming Speaker, Ryan spent several years running the Budget Committee and the Ways and Means Committee, where he issued budget and tax plans each year to carry out his goals (lower taxes for the rich and cuts in entitlement spending), which are described in the reports below.
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report April 11, 2018 Who Pays Taxes in America in 2018?
America’s tax system overall is marginally progressive. The share of all taxes paid by the richest Americans slightly exceeds their share of the nation’s income. Conversely, the share of all taxes paid by the poorest Americans is slightly smaller than the share of the nation’s income going to that group.
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blog December 1, 2017 Senator Collins Pushes Hard for a Property Tax Deduction that Very Few of Her Constituents Will Be Able to Claim
Adding a property tax deduction back into the Senate bill may sound like a compromise, but a new analysis performed using the ITEP Microsimulation Tax Model reveals that the amount of state and local taxes deducted by Maine residents would plummet by 90 percent under this change, from $2.58 billion to just $262 million in 2019. In short, this change is much more symbolic than substantive.
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report November 29, 2017 Six More Things to Know About the Senate Tax Plan
A recent ITEP study concluded that the tax bill before the Senate would raise taxes on at least 29 percent of Americans and cause the populations of 19 states to pay more in federal taxes in 2027 than they do today, while providing foreign investors with more benefits than American households. This report delves deeper by breaking out impacts of different components of the Senate tax plan on U.S. taxpayers in 2019 and 2027. This approach leads to several conclusions.
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report October 4, 2017 Benefits of GOP-Trump Framework Tilted Toward the Richest Taxpayers in Each State
The “tax reform framework” released by the Trump administration and Congressional Republican leaders on September 27 would affect states differently, but every state would see its richest residents grow richer if it is enacted. In all but a handful of states, at least half of the tax cuts would flow to the richest one percent of residents if the framework took effect.
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report August 17, 2017 Nearly Half of Trump’s Proposed Tax Cuts Go to People Making More than $1 Million Annually
A tiny fraction of the U.S. population (one-half of one percent) earns more than $1 million annually. But in 2018 this elite group would receive 48.8 percent of the tax cuts proposed by the Trump administration. A much larger group, 44.6 percent of Americans, earn less than $45,000, but would receive just 4.4 percent of the tax cuts.
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blog July 26, 2017 Trump Touts Tax Cuts for the Wealthy as a Plan for Working People
Unless the administration takes a radically different direction on tax reform from what it has already proposed, its tax plan would be a monumental giveaway to the top 1 percent. The wealthiest one percent of households would receive 61 percent of all the Trump tax breaks, and would receive an average of $145,400 in 2018 alone.
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report July 20, 2017 Trump’s $4.8 Trillion Tax Proposals Would Not Benefit All States or Taxpayers Equally
The broadly outlined tax proposals released by the Trump administration would not benefit all taxpayers equally and they would not benefit all states equally either. Several states would receive a share of the total resulting tax cuts that is less than their share of the U.S. population. Of the dozen states receiving the least by this measure, seven are in the South. The others are New Mexico, Oregon, Maine, Idaho and Hawaii.
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report April 13, 2017 Who Pays Taxes in America in 2017?
All Americans pay taxes. Most of us pay federal and state income taxes. Everyone who works pays federal payroll taxes. Everyone who buys gasoline pays federal and state gas taxes. Everyone who owns or rents a home directly or indirectly pays property taxes. Anyone who shops pays sales taxes in most states.
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news release March 27, 2017 New 50-State Analysis of AHCA Tax Provisions
A new Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy analysis of tax provisions in the American Health Care Act provides a 50-state breakdown of how taxpayers would be affected by the… -
blog March 22, 2017 GOP Healthcare Bill Cuts Insurance Coverage for Millions to Pay for Tax Cuts for the Wealthy; ITEP State-By-State Estimates
The House GOP’s American Health Care Act is being pushed quickly through the legislative process, with a vote on the House floor scheduled for as early as Thursday. The Republican… -
report March 17, 2017 Affordable Care Act Repeal Includes a $31 Billion Tax Cut for a Handful of the Wealthiest Taxpayers: 50-State Breakdown
Congressional Republicans have proposed legislation that would repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA), including rolling back a number of tax changes that were enacted to pay for the ACA’s health care expansions. Among these tax changes are two targeted income tax increases that took effect in 2013, each of which apply only to a small number of the wealthiest Americans: the net investment tax and additional Medicare tax. Repealing these two taxes would cost over $31 billion a year if implemented in tax year 2016, and 85 percent of the benefit from repealing these taxes would go to the best off 1 percent of Americans nationwide.
This analysis includes a 50-state breakdown of these impacts.
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report June 29, 2016 Ryan Tax Plan Reserves Most Tax Cuts for Top 1 percent, Costs $4 Trillion Over 10 Years
A new distributional analysis of Republican Speaker of the House Paul Ryan’s “A Better Way” policies finds that the plan would: • Add $4 trillion to the national debt over a… -
report February 11, 2016 Tax Foundation Model Seeks to Revive Economic Voodoo
In recent months, the Tax Foundation has used its Taxes and Growth Model (TAG Model) to estimate the impact that a variety of tax policy changes would have on the nation’s economy–including tax plans proposed by current presidential candidates.
The Tax Foundation describes the underlying “logic” of its TAG Model as being rooted in the assumption that “taxes have a major impact on economic growth.” More specifically, the TAG Model has concluded that proposals to lower taxes for high-income individuals and businesses would dramatically grow the economy, and that proposals to raise taxes would significantly slow economic growth.
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April 7, 2014 The Camp Tax Plan Is a Regressive $1.7 Trillion Tax Cut
The Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, Dave Camp (R-Mich.), has a tax overhaul plan that would cut the top personal income tax rate down from about 40… -
report September 15, 2004 The Effects of Replacing Most Federal Taxes with a National Sales Tax
Recently, there has been renewed discussion of the possibility of replacing most federal taxes with a national retail sales tax. Such an idea was broached in the 1990s, but political…