Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy

ITEP's Research Priorities

New York Times: Trump Flirts With the Ultimate Tax Cut: No Income Taxes at All

October 24, 2024

Former President Donald J. Trump has spent much of the presidential campaign brainstorming new, and sometimes untested, ways to cut taxes. In the election’s final stretch, he raised the possibility of going even further: eliminating income taxes entirely.

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How Would the Harris and Trump Tax Plans Affect Different Income Groups?

October 23, 2024 • By Jon Whiten

Presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have put forward a wide range of different tax proposals during this year’s campaign. We have now fully analyzed the distributional impacts of the major proposals of both Vice President Harris and former President Trump in separate analyses. In all, the tax proposals announced by Harris would, on average, lead to a tax cut for all income groups except the richest 1 percent of Americans, while the proposals announced by Trump would, on average, lead to a tax increase for all income groups except the richest 5 percent of Americans.  

American Immigration Council: Mass Deportation: Devastating Costs to America, Its Budget and Economy

October 18, 2024

In recent months, leading politicians and policymakers have renewed calls for mass deportations of immigrants from the United States. While similar promises have been made in the past without coming to fruition—during the 2016 presidential campaign, for example, Donald Trump pledged to create a “deportation force” to round up undocumented immigrants —mass deportation now occupies a standing role in the rhetoric of leading immigration hawks. To cite just one example, former U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) director Tom Homan has promised “a historic deportation operation” should a hawkish administration return to power. While some plans have envisioned a one-time,…

New York Times: How Trump’s Radical Tariff Plan Could Wreck Our Economy

October 18, 2024

As a result, tariffs would raise the cost of living more for middle- and lower-income families than the average. An estimate by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, which assumes a 20 percent tariff, finds that it would reduce the real income of families in the bottom fifth of earners by 5.7 percent, of middle-income families by 4.6 percent, but of the top 1 percent by only 1.4 percent. An analysis by the Peterson Institute for International Economics arrives at similar numbers. In other words, Trump’s 2.0 tariffs would in effect be a strongly regressive tax increase, imposing a…

CBS News: Trump’s Plan to Deport Millions of Immigrants Would Cost Hundreds of Billions, CBS News Analysis Shows

October 18, 2024

Immigration researchers, lawyers, and economists have pointed to immense constitutional, humanitarian and economic problems posed by Trump's oft-repeated pledge. But beyond the anticipated damage to immigrant families, communities and local economies, the roundup and deportation of some 11 million people is near impossible to bankroll, according to an analysis of U.S. budget and immigration court data by CBS News.

Variety: From Tariffs to Taxes to Tyranny, Hollywood Braces for the Possibility of a Donald Trump Victory

October 18, 2024

Abbasi’s experience says a lot about the anxiety gripping the entertainment world as it watches a tumultuous, enormously consequential election unfold. From corporate suites to studio lots, Hollywood is bracing for a possible Trump return, one that could bring chaos and deepen political divisions in a polarized country.

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2024 Local Tax Ballot Measures: Voters in Dozens of Communities Will Shape Local Policy

October 17, 2024 • By Rita Jefferson

Next month, voters across the country will weigh in on many local ballot measures that will have a profound effect on the adequacy of our local tax systems and whether cities and communities can fund public needs. These are in addition to statewide ballot questions, many of which have local implications this year.  

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2024 State Tax Ballot Questions: Voters to Weigh in on Tax Changes Big and Small

October 17, 2024 • By Jon Whiten

As we approach November’s election, voters in several states will be weighing in on tax policy changes. The outcomes will impact the equity of state and local tax systems and the adequacy of the revenue those systems are able to raise to fund public services.

Audio: ITEP’s Amy Hanauer Talks Presidential Tax Plans on NerdWallet Podcast

October 17, 2024

Paycheck Politics: What Presidential Tax Plans May Mean for Your Wallet. Listen here.

Washington Center for Equitable Growth: The Promise of Equitable and Pro-Growth Tax Reform

October 16, 2024

The impending expiration of large portions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act at the end of 2025 presents federal policymakers with a significant opportunity to reform the federal tax code in the United States. Too often, political openings for pro-growth tax reform have instead been transformed into opportunities to introduce new tax cuts for those at the top of the income and wealth distribution. Proponents of these tax cuts usually defend their actions by invoking a now-widely discredited “trickle-down” theory of economic growth.

Washington Post: “Off the Charts”: How Trump Tariffs Would Shock U.S., World Economies

October 16, 2024

Former president Donald Trump is campaigning on the most significant increase in tariffs in close to a century, preparing an attack on the international trade order that would likely raise prices, hurt the stock market and spark economic feuds with much of the world.

New York Times: Trump and Harris Both Like a Child Tax Credit, but With Different Aims

October 16, 2024

Vice President Kamala Harris has made an expanded child tax credit central to her campaign, and former President Donald J. Trump boasts, “I doubled the child tax credit.” With a quick look, voters might think the child-rearing subsidy the rare matter on which the rival candidates agree.

Los Angeles Times: Here Are 4 Campaign Promises from Trump. What Are Their Chances if He Wins?

October 16, 2024

The economic impacts would be huge. In California, an estimated 1.5 million workers — 7% of the state’s labor force — are undocumented, according to the Pew Research Center. The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, a left-leaning think tank, found that undocumented workers paid $96.7 billion in taxes in 2022, including $8.5 billion in California.

Mother Jones: Trump’s Reverse Robin Hood Tax Cuts of 2017

October 16, 2024

On October 7, the nonpartisan Institute for Taxation and Economic Policy released an analysis of whom Trump’s tax proposals would benefit. It’s probably not you.

Grist: Trump’s Proposed Mass Deportations Could “Decimate” the US Food Supply

October 15, 2024

As Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump campaigns for a second term in the White House, the former president has repeatedly promised to enact the largest deportation of undocumented immigrants in U.S. history. It’s a bold threat that legal experts say should be taken seriously, despite the significant technical and logistical challenges posed by deporting 11 million people from the U.S. 

Business Insider: The Top 5% Will Benefit from Trump’s Tax Plans While the Rest of America Pays More, a New Analysis Says

October 11, 2024

According to a new analysis from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy — a left-leaning think tank — Trump's tax and tariff proposals could spur an average tax cut of about $36,300 for the richest 1% of Americans, or those with incomes of $914,900 and above. Beyond that, ITEP expects the next-richest 4% to receive an average tax cut of about $7,200.

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: Pennsylvanians Favor Citizenship, Not Deportation, for Unauthorized Immigrants in New Survey

October 11, 2024

But even as most polls show Trump is preferred over Vice President Kamala Harris on immigration, his policy prescription is not the one that Pennsylvanians prefer, according to survey results released Thursday.

North Carolina Budget & Tax Center: North Carolinians Deserve the Credit

October 11, 2024

Despite strong state performance in job growth and employment, too many households in North Carolina are struggling to make ends meet and cope with the rising cost of living — especially those with young children. Widespread low incomes and elevated poverty rates are preventing families from meeting their needs, reaching their potential, and contributing their full talents to our communities. The prevalence of this financial hardship has direct consequences for the long-term well-being of children and our state’s economy.

Salon: Expert: Analysis shows Trump tax plan “taking money” from bottom 95% and “giving it” to richest 5%

October 9, 2024

Former President Donald Trump's proposed tax plan would create tax cuts for the nation's top 5% of earners while leaving the rest of Americans to shoulder tax increases by 2026, according to a new analysis.

Sen. Warren: Warren, Dean Press CocaCola, PepsiCo, and General Mills on “Shrinkflation” Price Gouging and Tax Dodging

October 9, 2024

U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Representative Madeleine Dean (D-Pa.) wrote to the CEOs of Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, and General Mills, pressing their executives on the companies’ pattern of profiteering off consumers, both through “shrinkflation” and dodging taxes on the profits they made from that price gouging.

Idaho Center for Fiscal Policy: Idaho’s Recent String of Income Tax Cuts Jeopardizes Investments in Public Services

October 4, 2024

Every year, Idaho tax dollars are spent to ensure families receive a good education, live in safe communities, experience good health, and drive on safe roads. However, over the past four years, lawmakers have passed deep and costly tax cuts and reforms. These cuts were made in response to temporary budget surpluses that were largely driven by federal pandemic relief, but they have long term consequences. The changes to Idaho’s tax code —which are permanent and tilted toward wealthy households and corporations — weaken state revenues by growing amounts over time, limiting the state’s ability to maintain support for schools…

Economic Policy Institute: The U.S. Benefits From Immigration but Policy Reforms Needed to Maximize Gains

October 4, 2024

Immigration has been a source of strength for the U.S. economy and has great potential to boost it even more, but the current U.S. immigration policy regime squanders too many of its potential benefits by depriving immigrants of their full rights as workers and granting employers too much power to manipulate the system. It is crystal clear that immigration expands U.S. gross domestic product and is good for growth. And immigration overall has led to better, not worse, wages and work opportunities for U.S.-born workers. Yet, it is also clear that when workers are denied full and equal labor and…

Al Jazeera: How Will Trump’s Plans to Deport Undocumented Migrants Impact US Economy?

October 4, 2024

Trump has made immigration, a hot-button issue this election, one of the pillars of his campaign. The role of immigrants in the startup economy is well known – 55 percent of US startups valued at $1bn or more were founded by immigrants, and some of the most famous names in Silicon Valley are those of foreign-born entrepreneurs, including Tesla chief Elon Musk and Google co-founder Sergey Brin.

New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute: Federal Policymakers Will Consider Tax Changes Benefitting Higher-Income Granite Staters in 2025

October 2, 2024

Federal lawmakers will face several key fiscal policy deadlines in 2025. These deadlines include, but are not limited to, the federal government’s debt limit taking effect in January 2025; the end of the current spending caps on the federal government’s annual budget in September 2025; the sunsetting of enhanced health care marketplace subsidies, which provided an estimated $38.4 million to Granite Staters in 2023 to help them afford individual health coverage, at the end of 2025; and the expiration of key components of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) after December 2025.

Business Insider: Trump’s Plan to Scrap Taxes on Tips and Overtime Could Reshape How Millions of Americans Get Paid

October 2, 2024

Joe Hughes, a senior analyst on federal tax policy at the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, told BI that "you would need a lot of safeguards in place to keep this from being just another avenue for tax avoidance." He continued: "It's at least applaudable that Trump says that he wants to help low-income workers. But I think that there are much better avenues to do that than exempting very specific types of income."