The final Trump-GOP tax law provides most of its benefits to high-income households and foreign investors while raising taxes on many low- and middle-income Americans. The bill goes into effect in 2018 but the provisions directly affecting families and individuals all expire after 2025, with the exception of one provision that would raise their taxes. To get an idea of how the bill will affect Americans at different income levels in different years, this analysis focuses on the bill’s impacts in 2019 and 2027.
Tax Reform Options and Challenges
In addition to distributional analyses of existing and proposed tax law, ITEP provides policy recommendations for lawmakers to build a more equitable tax code, from progressive revenue-raising options to corporate tax reform to establishing a model for a wealth tax.
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report December 16, 2017 The Final Trump-GOP Tax Plan: National and 50-State Estimates for 2019 & 2027
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blog December 15, 2017 Final Tax Bill Reported to Provide Senator Rubio With Much Smaller Improvement for Children than He Demanded
The latest news on the GOP tax bill is that, in order to secure the vote of Senator Marco Rubio, Republican leaders have agreed to expand the child tax credit — but only by a fraction of the amount that Rubio initially demanded.
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blog December 15, 2017 GOP Leaders Scrounge Up Money to Lower Top Tax Rate for the Rich But Not to Help Low-Income Working Families with Children
Republican leaders who rejected a proposal to have corporations pay a single percentage point higher tax rate to benefit families with children have tapped the exact same source of savings to provide more breaks for the richest 1 percent of taxpayers. The table below compares the number and share of households nationally and in all 50-states who would benefit from the proposal to reduce taxes for working families with children versus the ”compromise” to cut the top individual tax rate — below either the House or Senate version – to 37 percent for couples with incomes above $1 million.
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blog December 14, 2017 ITEP Resources for the Tax Reform Debate
ITEP researchers have produced new reports and analyses that look at various pieces of the tax bill, including: the share of tax cuts that will go to foreign investors; how the plans would affect the number of taxpayers that take the mortgage interest deduction or write off charitable contributions, and remaining problems with the bill in spite of proposed compromises on state and local tax deductions.
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report December 14, 2017 Tax Bill Would Increase Abuse of Charitable Giving Deduction, with Private K-12 Schools as the Biggest Winners
In its rush to pass a major rewrite of the tax code before year’s end, Congress appears likely to enact a “tax reform” that creates, or expands, a significant number of tax loopholes.[1] One such loophole would reward some of the nation’s wealthiest individuals with a strategy for padding their own bank accounts by “donating” to support private K-12 schools. While a similar loophole exists under current law, its size and scope would be dramatically expanded by the legislation working its way through Congress.[2]
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blog December 13, 2017 Latest “Compromise” for Tax Plan Is Even Worse than Previous Proposals, Would Reduce the Plans’ “Losers” by Less than 17,000 Taxpayers
Earlier this week, ITEP explained that two possible “compromises” to improve the Senate tax bill would accomplish very little other than make the plan more expensive. Incredibly, Republican leaders are… -
blog December 13, 2017 Parents of College Students: The Tax Plans’ Losers that No One Is Talking About
Parents of college students or kids in their last years of high school are more likely to face a tax hike than others under the tax legislation moving through Congress. Higher education has entered the tax debate because the House bill (but not the Senate bill) would repeal several provisions that make college and graduate education more accessible. But little thought has been given to how the tax bills would affect the parents of college students in more direct ways and make it difficult for them to finance college for their kids. If tax legislation were allowed a reasonable number of hearings and time for debate, this is exactly the sort of issue that could be addressed.
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blog December 12, 2017 Who Is “America First” Under the Tax Plan? The Rich First, Foreign Investors Second, Then the Rest of Us.
In his inaugural speech, President Trump told the world that Washington would be driven by a principle of “America First.” But the tax plans moving through Congress only put the richest Americans first. Everyone else comes after foreign investors.
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blog December 12, 2017 Treasury’s 1-Page Memo Reasserts False Claims that Tax Cuts Largely Pay for Themselves — But Only When Accompanied by Spending Cuts
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin claimed for weeks that his department would release a study showing that the $1.5 trillion tax cut moving through Congress would “pay for itself.” On Monday he released a one-page memo that asserts, without evidence, that economic growth resulting from President Trump’s policies would raise enough revenue to more than offset the costs of the tax cuts.
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blog December 10, 2017 “Compromises” Under Discussion for the State and Local Tax Deduction Do Not Fix Flawed Tax Bills
Republicans in Congress are reported to be considering two versions of a change they claim would “improve” the current bills by making them more generous to residents of higher-taxed states. As illustrated by these estimates, the reality is that these proposals would make little difference on those states and taxpayers hit hardest.
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blog December 10, 2017 Even with Potential SALT Compromises, Senate Bill Forces California and New York to Shoulder a Larger Share of Federal Taxes While Texas, Florida, and Other States Will Pay Less
The Senate tax bill, with or without either of the compromises that could be added to it, would shift personal income taxes away from Florida and Texas to states like California and New York, which are already paying a high share relative to their populations.
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blog December 7, 2017 Charitable, Property Tax, and Mortgage Interest Deductions Would Be Wiped Out for Two-Thirds of Current Claimants Under Congressional Tax Plans
In the ongoing debate over major federal tax legislation, there is significant focus on how House and Senate bills would eliminate the deduction for state income tax payments and cap the deduction for property taxes at $10,000 per year. At the same time, tax writers have retained deductions for charitable gifts and mortgage interest with what appear to be comparatively minor changes, at least at first glance.
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report December 6, 2017 National and 50-State Impacts of House and Senate Tax Bills in 2019 and 2027
The House passed its “Tax Cuts and Jobs Act” November 16th and the Senate passed its version December 2nd. Both bills would raise taxes on many low- and middle-income families in every state and provide the wealthiest Americans and foreign investors substantial tax cuts, while adding more than $1.4 trillion to the deficit over ten years. National and 50-State data available to download.
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blog December 1, 2017 Senate “Pass-Through” Deduction Threatens to Undermine State Tax Systems
The U.S. Senate will soon be voting on a bill that would, among other things, allow so-called “pass-through” businesses to pay significantly lower taxes than their employees…If the Senate “pass-through” deduction is enacted into law, dozens of states will be forced to confront the possibility of reduced revenue collections, more regressive tax codes, and increased tax avoidance.
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blog December 1, 2017 New ITEP Report Explains How Tax Reform Should Eliminate Breaks for Real Estate Investors Like Trump
A new report from ITEP provides more details on the many breaks and loopholes for wealthy real estate investors like Trump and what a true tax reform would do to close them.
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report December 1, 2017 How True Tax Reform Would Eliminate Breaks for Real Estate Investors Like Donald Trump
The federal tax code includes several loopholes and special breaks that advantage wealthy real estate investors like President Donald Trump. Under current law, real estate investors can claim losses much more quickly and easily than other taxpayers, but they also have several methods to delay or avoid reporting any profits to the IRS.
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blog December 1, 2017 Senator Collins Pushes Hard for a Property Tax Deduction that Very Few of Her Constituents Will Be Able to Claim
Adding a property tax deduction back into the Senate bill may sound like a compromise, but a new analysis performed using the ITEP Microsimulation Tax Model reveals that the amount of state and local taxes deducted by Maine residents would plummet by 90 percent under this change, from $2.58 billion to just $262 million in 2019. In short, this change is much more symbolic than substantive.
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blog November 30, 2017 Republican Senators Debate Size of “Pass-Through” Break, But Proposed Compromises Will Make No Difference to Anyone Who Is Not Well-Off
Senators Ron Johnson of Wisconsin and Steve Daines of Montana want the tax bill on the Senate floor to be amended to offer a more generous tax break for “pass-through” businesses. We have estimated how all the provisions in the tax bill would impact each income group under three possible scenarios. The only thing different in each scenario is the size of the deduction for pass-through income: 17.4 percent (the deduction in the bill as this is written), 20 percent and 27 percent. We find that the size of the pass-through break makes no difference for anyone who is not well off.
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blog November 30, 2017 A Corporate Tax Cut Would Benefit Coastal Investors, Not the Heartland
The centerpiece of the House and Senate tax plans is a major tax cut for profitable corporations that the American public does not want, and that will overwhelmingly benefit a small number of wealthy investors living in traditionally “blue” states. New ITEP research shows that poorer states such as West Virginia, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Tennessee would be largely left behind by a corporate tax cut, while the lion’s share of the benefits would remain with a relatively small number of wealthy investors who tend to be concentrated in larger cities near the nation’s coasts.
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blog November 30, 2017 Lawmakers Are Allowing Monied Interests to Trump the Voices of Their Constituents
George Washington is said to have described the U.S. Senate as the body that cools the passions of an impulsive House of Representatives just as a saucer cools tea. But current Senate leaders appear to think of themselves as more of a Bunsen burner.
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blog November 30, 2017 Chained CPI Would Raise Everyone’s Personal Income Taxes in the Future, Would Hurt the Poor Right Away
One of the findings is that every income group would face higher personal income taxes in years after 2025 (including 2027). Chained CPI would gradually push taxpayers into higher income tax brackets and make the standard deduction, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and several other breaks less generous over time. The switch to chained CPI would cause some low-income people to face a tax hike starting in 2019, the second year the plan would be in effect.
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report November 29, 2017 Six More Things to Know About the Senate Tax Plan
A recent ITEP study concluded that the tax bill before the Senate would raise taxes on at least 29 percent of Americans and cause the populations of 19 states to pay more in federal taxes in 2027 than they do today, while providing foreign investors with more benefits than American households. This report delves deeper by breaking out impacts of different components of the Senate tax plan on U.S. taxpayers in 2019 and 2027. This approach leads to several conclusions.
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blog November 22, 2017 Mick Mulvaney and the 19 States Paying Higher Taxes Under the Senate Tax Bill
One of the more surprising findings of ITEP’s recent estimates on the Senate tax bill is that 19 states would pay more overall in federal taxes if the bill becomes law. This is not just an increase in the personal income taxes paid (which would happen in some states under the House bill). This is an increase in their net federal taxes overall, even including the assumed benefits of corporate tax cuts and estate tax cuts.
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report November 18, 2017 Revised Senate Plan Would Raise Taxes on at Least 29% of Americans and Cause 19 States to Pay More Overall
The tax bill reported out of the Senate Finance Committee on Nov. 16 would raise taxes on at least 29 percent of Americans and cause the populations of 19 states to pay more in federal taxes in 2027 than they do today.
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blog November 14, 2017 House Tax Plan Offers an Exceptionally Bad Deal for California, New York, New Jersey, and Maryland
An ITEP analysis reveals that four states would see their residents pay more in aggregate federal personal income taxes under the House’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. While some individual taxpayers in every state would face a tax increase, only California, New York, Maryland, and New Jersey would see such large increases that their residents’ overall personal income tax payments rise when compared to current law.